I strongly recommend reading this article all the way to the end; your money is precious, and knowledge is what protects it.
The rally is over, the catastrophic drop has cooled, and the market didn’t deliver a Santa rally—liquidity simply evaporated.
Ethereum and Solana look like they’re building a real base, while XRP remains comparatively heavy and less convincing.
A brutal “doom flush” can paradoxically be the fastest bridge to a Q1 ATH attempt, but a slow, dry market usually pushes ATH timelines later.
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The market is not bullish—it’s anesthetized
This is not a “calm market.” It’s an empty market.
After a violent selloff, it’s common to see a phase where:
Panic selling is largely finished.
Buyers are present, but only at very specific levels.
Everyone is hesitant to be the first person to “declare the low.”
So price stops trending and starts drifting. Books thin out. Volatility compresses. And most participants feel like nothing works.
That’s exactly why this phase is dangerous: thin liquidity makes price action deceptive. A relatively small order can create a “breakout candle,” and the market can take it back just as easily. This is the part of the cycle where traders get chopped, not because they’re bad, but because the market is structurally designed to punish impatience.
What “a real base” actually means (and why ETH/SOL look better than XRP)
A base is not a chart pattern you recognize—it’s a market behavior you observe.
A base forms when:
Sellers fail to push price down further despite repeated attempts.
Dips get bought faster than before.
The market stops accelerating downward after bad news.
Shorts stop getting “free money” on every bounce.
In that sense, ETH and SOL are showing the kind of behavior that hints at absorption—someone is willing to buy what others are selling.
XRP, by comparison, feels weaker because it looks like:
Less urgency from buyers.
Less “reflex bid” when the market twitches upward.
More hesitation from traders who want leadership, not lag.
This doesn’t mean XRP can’t pump. It means if the next impulse happens, it may be selective—and selection matters in a market where liquidity is scarce.
Ethereum: slow, heavy, and often “late”—but structurally powerful
Ethereum tends to look boring right before it looks inevitable.
When ETH is basing, it’s usually because it’s being treated like a core risk asset:
Deep liquidity and broad access.
Institutional familiarity.
A staking + ecosystem gravity that doesn’t disappear even in ugly markets.
ETH doesn’t need to win every narrative battle. It needs to remain the credible settlement layer and the default “quality alt” for capital that wants exposure without playing roulette.
And if risk returns in the New Year, ETH is frequently the first major coin that capital rotates into after BTC—or at minimum, the cleanest large-cap way to add beta without going down the altcoin food chain.
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| chart by TradingView |
Solana: higher cycle energy, sharper reflexes, and a stronger “risk-on magnet”
Solana is different. It’s not just a coin—it’s a behavioral asset.
When traders feel the market waking up, SOL often becomes a magnet because:
It moves fast when momentum returns.
Retail narratives tend to bloom quickly on it (apps, memecoins, DeFi bursts).
It has a history of violent expansions after quiet basing phases.
In early-year environments, especially after a painful drawdown, traders often want the coin that can “make back the year” quickly. SOL fits that psychology better than most majors.
But the tradeoff is clear: SOL can overshoot in both directions. So if the market is still fragile, SOL will show it first—either through explosive upside or sudden downside.
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| chart by TradingView |
XRP: why the relative weakness matters (even if you like XRP)
XRP’s underperformance right now is a signal. It implies the market is currently paying up for either:
Institutional-grade credibility (ETH), or
high-beta cycle energy (SOL)
And XRP is stuck in the middle—big enough to be watched, but not currently priced like a leader.
That doesn’t mean XRP is “bad.” It means in a thin-liquidity regime, money often concentrates into the assets that can lead narrative and flow.
If XRP starts outperforming later, it often happens when:
The market becomes broader (more coins participating).
Retail enthusiasm returns.
Late-cycle rotation begins.
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| chart by TradingView |
The New Year ATH question: yes, it’s possible—especially in the “doom paradox”
Scenario 1: Bull case — Controlled recovery, real rotation, clean breakouts
This is the healthy path:
Liquidity returns gradually.
Breakouts hold more often than they fail.
Pullbacks get bought without instant collapse.
In this case, ETH and SOL can attempt ATH later in the year as trends build step-by-step.
Scenario 2: Base case — Range first, fakeouts, then a trend
This is the most common reality:
Sideways chop continues.
Both bulls and bears get baited.
A real trend emerges only after the market exhausts participants.
ATH is still possible, but timing becomes messy and patience becomes profitable.
Scenario 3: Doom case — One last brutal flush… then a Q1 ATH attempt
This is the paradox you mentioned, and it’s real.
A final violent drop can accelerate the path to ATH because it:
Wipes out leverage.
Forces weak hands to sell.
Resets positioning.
Creates a clean base for a sharp reversal.
The market often rallies hardest from the point where people feel most convinced it’s “over.” If a doom flush happens and then fails to continue lower, that’s when Q1 becomes a legitimate window for an aggressive upside attempt.
The irony is brutal: the most painful scenario can be the one that sets up the fastest recovery.
What you should watch to know if the market is waking up
In a dry market, opinions don’t matter—regime change signals do.
Here are the practical tells:
Funding rates: Are longs paying too much too early? (bad) Or staying reasonable? (good)
Open interest: Is leverage rebuilding quietly? (can fuel a move, but also sets up a flush)
Volatility expansion: Does the market finally expand upward and hold gains?
Relative strength: ETH vs BTC, SOL vs ETH, XRP vs majors—leadership reveals the real story.
Spot vs derivatives behavior: Spot-led moves are rarer but more trustworthy.
If you see expanding volume + sustained follow-through, that’s the market waking up.
If you see repeated pumps that instantly fade, that’s still anesthesia.
My stance, stated plainly
ETH and SOL look like they’re basing with intention.
XRP looks like it needs more proof before it earns leadership status again.
A Q1 ATH attempt is most plausible if the market first delivers one more “doom-style” leverage reset and then violently reverses.
If the market stays dry and orderly, ATH is still possible—but it likely becomes a later-year story, not an immediate New Year miracle.
This is the environment where patience is a weapon. Not because patience is “virtuous,” but because thin liquidity punishes emotional timing. If the market is truly building a low, it will eventually make it obvious. Until then, the safest assumption is that false signals will be common and conviction will be expensive.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice; any decisions you make with your money are entirely your own responsibility.
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