Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Next Support Lines: Why the Real Hell for Leverage Begins After This Drop

I strongly recommend reading this article all the way to the end; your money is precious, and knowledge is what protects it.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are finally delivering the deeper correction I have been expecting, after what I repeatedly called an “overly short” pullback.
Technically, both still have room to probe lower supports, and even if this leg ends soon, that does not automatically mean a fresh, clean bull run is waiting on the other side.
My personal view is that once this down-move exhausts, we will see a short but sharp relief rally where a handful of major altcoins attempt to print new local highs, before the market likely slips into a boring and brutal range that punishes high-leverage traders.

1. The correction I was talking about has finally extended

Over the past few days and weeks, I kept repeating one core idea:
the previous correction was too short in both price and time.

We saw:

A strong vertical move up.
A shallow, brief pause that many traders wrongly labeled as a “completed correction.”
Then renewed optimism and aggressive leverage right near the top.

Now the market is doing what it usually does in that situation:
it extends the downside leg until positioning is cleaned up.

The key question from here is not “Was I right?” (we already got the deeper drop) but:

Where are the next meaningful support zones for Bitcoin and Ethereum?
How much time does this corrective phase still need?
And most importantly, what kind of market is likely to follow: strong trend or dead, choppy range?

2. Bitcoin: next technical supports and the time dimension

2.1. Key support zones for BTC

Right now, Bitcoin has:

Broken its short-term uptrend line from the last big leg higher.
Lost the comfort zone around the upper 90Ks / low 100Ks that previously acted as a consolidation band.

Below the current price, I am focusing on three main support zones:

(1) First major support: $80K–$82K

This is, in my view, the first “real” support area of this correction:

It roughly matches a 0.5 retracement of the last big impulse up.
It lines up with previous breakout and consolidation levels where a lot of volume changed hands.
It also represents the area where many dip-buyers mentally anchored their “worst case” when we were still near the top.

If Bitcoin is going to keep the narrative of a healthy bull-market correction, I believe it needs to find buyers somewhere in the $80K–$82K zone and defend that region on closing timeframes.

(2) Deeper, mid-range support: $70K–$73K

If $80K–$82K fails decisively and turns into resistance, the next obvious magnet is the old mid-range from earlier in the year:

A broad support band around $70K–$73K.
This is where Bitcoin previously spent time consolidating before the last parabolic push.

Revisiting this band would represent a more serious reset and would finally inflict enough price damage to wash out late bulls and overconfident leverage.

(3) Tail-risk flush: around $62K

In an extreme scenario, where sentiment deteriorates more than the market currently expects, a deeper slide toward the low $60Ks is possible:

A level around $62K sits right on top of a very large prior consolidation zone.
It would mark a full “cycle mid-range” retest and a proper psychological reset.

I do not treat $62K as my base case. But it is a scenario that should exist somewhere on your risk map.

2.2. How much time might Bitcoin still need?

From the early October high to now, we are only looking at several weeks of correction.

Historically, mid-cycle drawdowns in Bitcoin often take:

Roughly 6–12 weeks for shallow-to-moderate corrections.
Up to 3–6 months when the market really needs to flush leverage and reset sentiment between two big bull legs.

Right now we are somewhere in between:

Enough time has passed that people are nervous.
But not necessarily enough time to say, “All leverage is cleaned up, and everyone is humbled.”

My base case for BTC looks like this:

A move into the $80K–$82K area, possibly with a brief spike below to trigger stop-hunts.
A sharp relief rally that squeezes late shorts and pushes price back toward the low 90Ks.
Then a sideways range between roughly $80K and $100K for a while, while the market decides whether to prepare for a new leg up or something uglier.

chart by TradingView

3. Ethereum: weaker structure, but similar story

Ethereum’s chart looks similar to Bitcoin’s, but structurally weaker.

3.1. Key support zones for ETH

ETH has:

Fallen significantly from its recent peak, losing multiple short-term support levels on the way down.
Printed a clear series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily, forming a descending channel.

The levels I am watching on ETH are:

(1) First support band: $2,600–$2,700

This area is important for several reasons:

It roughly matches a 0.5 retracement of the move from the last big swing low to the recent high.
It sits near former consolidation and breakout areas on the way up.
It is psychologically important: many traders see “mid-$2Ks” as the line between a strong bull correction and something more serious.

If ETH is going to maintain relative strength, the bleeding needs to slow down around $2,600–$2,700. Losing this band cleanly opens the door to deeper tests.

(2) Mid-range demand: $2,300–$2,400

If the $2,600–$2,700 zone fails:

The next natural magnet is the broader mid-range around $2,300–$2,400.
This is where ETH previously spent a lot of time in sideways consolidation.
It is also where many longer-term spot buyers will start to look more seriously at scaling in again.

(3) Full reset territory: high $1Ks

In the worst-case scenario:

ETH could slide toward the $1,700–$1,800 area, or even flirt with $1,500.
That would represent a truly deep reset of this cycle and would probably require a more severe macro or crypto-specific shock.

Again, I do not treat this as the central scenario, but ignoring this possibility would be naive in a market as volatile as crypto.

3.2. The timing for ETH

Historically, Ethereum tends to:

Lag Bitcoin on the way down.
Then play catch-up and overperform during relief rallies or secondary bull legs.

A realistic sequence could be:

BTC tags or briefly breaks its key support (e.g., around $80K).
ETH overshoots down into $2,400–$2,600.
Once BTC stabilizes, ETH suddenly wakes up and outperforms BTC for a short period as traders rotate into higher-beta exposure.

chart by TradingView

4. The dangerous myth: “Once the drop ends, the bull run resumes”

The most important part of your question is this:

Just because this new leg of the drop ends, it does not automatically mean a full-blown rally will follow.

I completely agree.

After a correction, the market has three typical paths:

V-shaped reversal
Fast down, fast up, straight into new highs.
Range and chop
Trend stops. Price spends weeks or months swinging inside a wide box, confusing everyone.
Dead-cat bounce
A sharp relief rally that fails to take out the previous high, followed by another leg down.

Given the current context, I see option 2 or 3 as more likely than a clean V-shaped moonshot.

This is especially important for high-leverage traders:

In a big red candle, you at least know you are in danger.
In a slow, grinding, sideways market, you bleed out from a thousand small cuts: fake breakouts, fake breakdowns, sudden wicks, and messy funding flips.

A hellish scenario for high leverage would be something like:

BTC trapped between $80K and $100K.
ETH stuck roughly between $2,400 and $3,200.
Volatility gets smaller, everyone tries to “force” trades, and 20–50x positions get liquidated from sheer noise.

In that environment, survival is more important than being “right.”

5. Short, violent altcoin rallies after the flush

Your view was very clear:

After this decline, you expect a short-lived rally, and during that period a few major altcoins might attempt to set new local highs.

I agree with that structure.

The usual pattern when a local bottom forms is:

Bitcoin stops making new lows and starts forming higher lows on intraday charts.
Ethereum stabilizes, sometimes still looking weak on the daily but no longer accelerating down.
Confidence slowly returns, and smart money begins to move out along the risk curve into selected altcoins.

At that point you often see:

A small group of strong, narrative-driven names (major L1s, infrastructure coins, or whatever the current meta is) suddenly explode to new period highs.
Meanwhile, weaker altcoins barely bounce or simply fade in silence.

So I see your scenario as realistic:

Once this leg ends, a short, sharp altcoin rally is very likely.
It will probably be narrow, driven by a small number of leaders, not a broad “everything goes up” environment.

However, it is crucial to understand:

That rally can easily be just one phase inside a bigger sideways market.
If you chase late with heavy leverage, you will be buying into someone else’s distribution, not the beginning of a new supercycle.

6. What this means for your actual strategy

To put everything into practical terms:

For Bitcoin

First serious support: $80K–$82K.
Deeper support: $70K–$73K, with $62K as a tail-risk flush.
Time: a total correction and range period of a few months would be perfectly normal for a mid-cycle reset.

For Ethereum

First serious support: $2,600–$2,700.
Deeper band: $2,300–$2,400, with high $1Ks as full-reset territory if things get really ugly.
Timing: likely bleeds a bit longer than BTC but can overperform during the relief phase.

For expectations

“Correction finished = straight new ATH” is a dangerous assumption.
A more realistic path is: flush → relief rally → range, not flush → vertical moon.

For high-leverage traders

The real enemy is not one big dump; it is the long, choppy, low-volatility market that follows.
Keeping leverage low, being very selective, and accepting many days of no trading is often the only way to survive that environment.

For altcoin hunters

I agree with your view: once this leg down is done, there is a good chance of a short altcoin season where a few leaders attempt to print new period highs.
But treat that as a tactical trade, not a guaranteed start of the final mania wave. Go in with a clear plan for entries, stop-losses, and profit-taking.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice; any decisions you make with your money are entirely your own responsibility.

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