The Destructive Fall of Crypto: What It Really Needs to Rise Again

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 As of November 19, 2025, here’s how I see the crypto market and the top 5 non-stablecoins by market cap.

Right now, the non-stable top 5 looks like this:

BTC / ETH / XRP / BNB / SOL

We’ve already had a strong rally in early and mid-2025.
Now Bitcoin is trading in the low $90,000s, roughly 30% below its yearly high,
the global crypto market cap is around $3.2T,
and BTC dominance sits in the mid-50% range.

My core view is simple:

“If we don’t get proper base-building or sideways action in November and December,
the next major bull leg will likely be weaker and more fragile.”

With that in mind, I’ll break down each of the top 5 coins with a focus on:

  • recent market behavior,

  • developer / ecosystem updates,

  • and bullish vs. bearish price scenarios based on my own opinion (not financial advice).

1. Big Picture: Where We Are Now

  • From March to October 2025,
    BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB all hit new all-time highs or came very close,
    and are now correcting 20–40% off those peaks.

  • On a structural level, we still have a “healthy correction after a strong uptrend”:

    • ETF flows into BTC and ETH,

    • DeFi TVL recovery,

    • and increasing institutional interest.

  • But in November 2025, the market feels like:

    • BTC: post-spike fatigue zone

    • Alts: stuck between unclear upside and downside

So from here, I think the key question is:

Do we build a new base in this area?
Or do we push up too fast again and set ourselves up for a deeper, more painful correction later?

2. Bitcoin (BTC) – “Slow base layer, fast Layer 2”

2-1. Market Status

  • Price: low $90,000s, about 30% down from the yearly high.

  • My interpretation:

    • This is the market cooling off a parabolic ETF-driven move.

    • If BTC holds somewhere in the $80K–$90K band, this zone could turn into a long-term consolidation range.

2-2. Developer / Ecosystem Updates

  • Covenant discussions (OP_CTV, OP_CAT, OP_VAULT, etc.)

    • There’s ongoing debate around soft-fork proposals that would enable more sophisticated “vault” and contract-like behavior on Bitcoin.

    • The direction is cautious and conservative, as always with Bitcoin.

  • Layer 2 and scalability research

    • Ark, BitVM-based L2s, and other designs are trying to make “programmable Bitcoin” real without bloating the base layer.

  • Overall direction:

    Keep the base chain simple, stable, and ultra-secure,
    while letting L2s and sidechains experiment and move fast.

2-3. Price Scenarios (my view, not financial advice)

Bullish scenario

  • BTC spends November–December mostly in the $80K–$90K range.

  • ETF inflows cool down, but don’t collapse.

  • On-chain leverage and unrealized profits reset.

  • In that case, I think a retest of $110K–$130K in early 2026 is very realistic.

Bearish scenario

  • $80K support fails convincingly.

  • Macro shocks (rates, regulation, or a risk-off event) hit at the same time.

  • BTC slides back into the $60K area.

  • In that version of the story, alts could easily see another 40–60% drawdown, and the next true cycle extension might get pushed out toward late 2026 or beyond.

3. Ethereum (ETH) – “After Pectra, the real L2 era”

3-1. Market Status

  • Price: low $3,000s.

  • Earlier in 2025, ETH tagged its previous ATH near $4,946 and then corrected.

Compared to BTC, ETH still looks relatively strong, supported by:

  • Spot ETH ETF inflows,

  • DeFi,

  • and the growth of Layer 2 networks.

3-2. Developer / Roadmap Updates

  • Proto-Danksharding (EIP-4844)

    • Introduced “blob” transactions to dramatically reduce data costs for rollups.

    • Structurally lowers fees on L2s and strengthens ETH’s role as a data / settlement layer.

  • Pectra upgrade (Prague + Electra)

    • Went live in 2025.

    • Focused on validator UX, security, and better account abstraction.

  • From a developer’s standpoint, the model is clearer than ever:

    L1 Ethereum = security + data availability,
    L2 = actual applications, UX, and business models.

3-3. Price Scenarios

Bullish scenario

  • ETH consolidates in the $2,500–$3,200 range through November–December.

  • L2 activity and DeFi TVL stabilize or grind higher.

  • Spot ETH ETF flows remain decent.

  • Under that setup, I can see ETH:

    • retaking $5,000, and

    • pushing toward $6,000–$7,000 in a 2026 extension leg.

Bearish scenario

  • BTC loses the $80K area, dragging ETH down to the low $2,000s.

  • If that’s combined with a drop in L2 usage and DeFi TVL, sentiment could flip from:

    • “This is the safest alt” → to

    • “ETH is dead money again.”

  • Personally, though, I’d see levels below $1,500 (if we ever get there) as long-term accumulation zones, not the end of Ethereum.

4. XRP – “Slow price, but steadily expanding functionality”

4-1. Market Status

  • Lately, XRP has shown weak momentum versus BTC and ETH, with small daily declines and a lack of clear narrative.

4-2. Developer / Ecosystem Updates

  • XRPL AMM & DeFi expansion

    • XRPL is no longer just a payment network.

    • Native AMMs, sidechains, and smart-contract-related features are gradually turning it into a DeFi-capable ecosystem.

  • Hooks & Blockly2Hooks

    • Hooks enables smart-contract-like logic on XRPL.

    • Blockly2Hooks aims to let non-developers visually create Hooks-based logic, lowering the barrier to entry.

  • The ledger is constantly updated through amendments, so for a “legacy” chain, XRPL development is more active than many people assume.

4-3. Price Scenarios

Bullish scenario

  • BTC and ETH move into a stable consolidation pattern.

  • No new major regulatory shocks for XRP.

  • XRPL DeFi and AMM usage gradually increases.

  • That would leave room for gradual re-rating, and a retest of former “lawsuit rally” levels in early to mid-2026.

Bearish scenario

  • XRP continues to be viewed as a “slow mover” relative to the rest of the market.

  • Any new legal or regulatory overhang appears.

  • In that case, XRP could remain one of the underperformers of the next bull phase, even if the overall market does well.

5. BNB – “More than just an exchange token now”

5-1. Market Status

  • In 2025, BNB broke above $1,000 to a new ATH,
    then entered a correction phase.

5-2. Developer / Ecosystem Updates

  • BNB Chain Tech Roadmap 2025

    • Focus on:

      • higher throughput,

      • AI integration,

      • better dev tooling,

      • and cleaner UX.

  • opBNB (BNB L2)

    • Built on Optimism’s OP Stack.

    • Targets:

      • ~1 second block times,

      • up to 100M gas per second,

      • and very low transaction fees.

  • Real usage

    • Tens of millions of monthly active addresses.

    • Millions of daily transactions.

    • For better or worse, BNB Chain remains one of the most heavily used blockchains on the planet.

From a builder’s perspective:

BNB may be heavily centralized and controversial,
but it’s also a chain with real users, real TX volume, and real revenue.

5-3. Price Scenarios

Bullish scenario

  • Through November–December, BNB manages to hold a $800–$1,000 range.

  • opBNB-based games, socials, and DeFi generate new success stories.

  • In that case, the “platform token premium” can send BNB to the $1,200–$1,500 range in the next leg.

Bearish scenario

  • Stronger global regulation hits centralized exchanges hard.

  • Any new major negative headline about Binance emerges.

  • Because of its structure, BNB can drop rapidly, and a move back below $500 wouldn’t surprise me in that environment.

6. Solana (SOL) – “From outages to a serious high-performance chain”

6-1. Market Status

  • After trading below $20 in 2023,
    Solana has rallied above $200 in 2025, and is now in a correction zone.

6-2. Developer / Ecosystem Updates

  • Network stability

    • The “chain that keeps going down” meme from 2021–2023 is fading.

    • Multi-client implementations, better spam protection, and priority fees have significantly improved stability.

  • Developers & adoption

    • Over 1,000 active application developers, plus dozens of core devs.

    • Developer adoption is now seen as second only to Ethereum in many reports.

  • 2025 roadmap

    • Further performance tuning, validator decentralization, and institutional-grade tools.

    • In short:

      double down on the “high-performance monolithic chain” thesis.

6-3. Price Scenarios

Bullish scenario

  • Even if BTC and ETH correct, SOL holds roughly the $120–$180 range.

  • Activity in DeFi, meme coins, NFTs, and gaming remains strong.

  • Under those conditions, a retest of $250–$300 in 2026 feels very realistic.

Bearish scenario

  • A global risk-off + Solana-specific issue (major DeFi hack, validator scandal, etc.) hits together.

  • SOL revisits sub-$100 levels.

  • That would reinforce its image as “the highest beta large-cap”: enormous upside, but brutal drawdowns.

7. How I Personally See November–December

My core assumption:

“We need a proper base or sideways phase in November–December
if we want the next bull leg to be sustainable.”

Let me unpack that a bit.

7-1. BTC as the anchor

  • Ideal pattern (in my view):

    • BTC ranges for 1–2 months in the $80K–$90K zone.

    • On-chain unrealized profits, funding rates, and leverage reset to healthier levels.

  • If that happens, the next move above $100K in 2026 is more likely to be:

    • Not just an “ETF blow-off top 2.0”,

    • but a deeper, structurally supported second leg.

7-2. Alts: the painful but necessary part

  • ETH / BNB / SOL have already rallied hard.

  • XRP is structurally weaker in terms of narrative and momentum.

  • My personal expectation:

    A second flush or extended sideways phase in mid- and small-cap alts during November–December
    (RWA, gaming, L2, meme coins, etc.)
    would actually be a healthy development for the cycle.

7-3. The “good” big picture

  • BTC:

    • Holds $80K–$90K.

  • ETH:

    • Holds roughly $2.5K–$3.2K.

  • Alts:

    • Take another 20–40% hit or move sideways to form solid bases.

  • If this structure plays out, I think:

    • A second wave in early 2026

    • with new all-time highs across majors

    • is a very reasonable scenario.

7-4. The “bad” big picture

  • If, instead:

    • BTC immediately reclaims $100K–$110K in November–December, and

    • alts start frothing up again,

  • Then we might get:

    • a sharp, deeper crash afterward,

    • potentially worse than the first correction earlier in 2025.

  • Especially if leverage and funding get overheated again, the market could face a second-leg drawdown that’s more violent.

Closing Thoughts

As of November 19, 2025:

  • BTC / ETH

    • Already have structural support from ETFs and real technical progress.

  • BNB / SOL

    • Are being re-rated as “chains with real users and real developer ecosystems.”

  • XRP

    • Is quietly adding functionality, but still lags on the price-action front.

I don’t see this as

“the end of the trend,”
but rather as
“a potential staging area for whatever comes next.”

And I’ll repeat my own stance one more time:

For the next bull leg to be healthy,
I want to see November and December used for base-building and sideways action,
not another forced, over-leveraged pump.

None of this is financial advice, just how I’m reading the market right now.
But for positioning and mindset, I’m personally treating this period as:

“A time to reduce greed,
watch development and on-chain metrics,
and pay close attention to how the market shapes November and December.”


This article reflects only personal opinions and general information, and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. 

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