I strongly recommend reading this article all the way to the end; your money is precious, and knowledge is what protects it.
Over just a few months, Bitcoin has gone from printing fresh all-time highs above $120,000 to trading in the mid-$80,000s, wiping out almost all of its 2025 gains and revisiting price levels last seen in April.
Volatility is extreme, sentiment has flipped to “extreme fear,” and yet funding and leverage are still high enough that both reckless longs and aggressive shorts can be liquidated in the same week.
In this piece I’m going to be very direct:
-
First, what just happened to Bitcoin on a macro level.
-
Second, the key technical resistance zones that actually matter now.
-
Third, why both heavy longs and heavy shorts are dangerous in this environment.
-
Finally, where I would realistically consider entering longs or shorts if I had to trade this market.
No hedging, no lazy “anything can happen” language. You already know anything can happen. What you need is a clear framework.
1. Big Picture: A Violent Mid-Cycle Decompression
Let’s anchor the situation in a few hard numbers:
-
October 2025: Bitcoin trades above $126,000, setting new all-time highs.
-
November 21, 2025: BTC trades in the mid-$80,000s, roughly a 30–35% drawdown in a short span, and the lowest levels since April.
From a cycle perspective, a ~30–40% correction inside a bull market is not abnormal for Bitcoin. Historical mid-cycle drawdowns have repeatedly reached that scale before the trend resumed. Recent technical work has highlighted support clusters around $92–95k, $85–90k, and a “worst-case” demand zone near $75–82k, explicitly comparing this move to prior bull-market corrections.
1.1 Macro: Risk-Off Hits Crypto at the Same Time
This crash is not happening in isolation:
-
Global risk assets, especially tech and AI stocks, have sold off sharply.
-
Expectations for rapid Fed rate cuts have cooled, pushing investors back toward the dollar and bonds.
-
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have turned choppy to negative, removing one of the main structural buyers of 2025.
In other words, Bitcoin is currently trading with global risk assets, not against them. When liquidity is leaving the system, every asset that benefited from easy money and euphoria gets hit, including BTC.
1.2 On-Chain: Distribution From Old Hands, Accumulation by Whales
On-chain data and institutional research converge on the same story:
-
Long-term holders have been taking profits and distributing into strength since BTC pushed above $100k and especially near the 120k+ highs.
-
The market has dropped below some key on-chain bands like the MVRV mean, with several analysts flagging $75–76k as the next major downside target if selling persists.
-
At the same time, large wallets (“whales”) are quietly accumulating spot as retail participants dump at a loss.
Structurally, that’s what a mid-cycle transfer of coins looks like: coins moving from weak hands and late leverage to balance sheets that don’t care about week-to-week volatility.
2. The Current Technical Structure: Where the Real Resistance Sits
Now let’s map the battlefield.
Multiple independent analyses are pointing to a very similar set of support and resistance levels:
Key support (downside map, for context)
From recent professional breakdowns of the BTCUSD chart:
-
$85,000 ± $1,500 – current mid-term support zone, already being tested.
-
$75,000–82,000 – critical long-term support and the prior major pullback area from April 2025.
-
Below $75k, the market starts to talk about a cycle-scale regime shift, not a simple correction.
Those are the levels where I’d expect serious dip-buyers and structural players to show up. But your question is about resistance, so let’s focus above price.
2.1 First ceiling: $90,000–93,000
This zone used to be “major support” on the way down and is now the first overhead band that any bounce has to fight through:
-
It aligns with recent local lows before the breakdown.
-
It’s a natural area for trapped longs to exit on a bounce.
Any rally that fails to even reclaim this zone is not a meaningful reversal; it’s just short-covering.
2.2 Primary battlefield: $98,000–$100,000
This is the real wall right now, and it’s the one I care about most:
-
It has repeatedly acted as a major support and pivot, and now flips into heavy resistance.
-
It clusters with widely watched moving averages like the 50-day MA and other mid-term trend indicators.
-
Several institutional and on-chain analyses label $98–100k as the core resistance band the market must reclaim to restore bullish momentum.
Think of $98–100k as the line between “deep correction in a bull market” and “this cycle may be done for now.” Price can chop below it for a long time – but unless BTC lives back above that band, talk of “imminent new highs” is just hopium.
2.3 Higher resistance bands: $106–108k, $116–118k, $124–126k
If – and it’s a big “if” in the short term – Bitcoin moves back up:
-
$106,000–108,000 – prior peak zone before the blow-off move to all-time highs.
-
$116,000–118,000 – an extension resistance cluster identified by multiple technical and on-chain frameworks.
-
$124,000–126,000 – current all-time high supply zone, where late FOMO buyers are sitting on heavy losses and will gladly sell into strength.
Realistically, in the next few months, the market’s fight is between $75k on the downside and $100k on the upside. The higher bands matter later, not now.
3. Why Aggressive Longs and Shorts Are Dangerous Here
You’re absolutely right to say that both reckless long and reckless short positions are dangerous in this environment.
Here’s why.
3.1 This is a “liquidity vacuum” zone
Between roughly $80k and $100k, order books are relatively thin, leverage is high but nervous, and there’s a huge concentration of:
-
Late breakout buyers above $100k
-
Panicked sellers in the $80k–90k area
That’s exactly where stop hunts and fake breakouts thrive. One day of ETF buying or macro relief can rip BTC +10–15% and destroy shorts; one more macro scare or liquidation cascade can nuke longs another -15–20% straight into $75k.
3.2 Macro is not decided yet
-
Fed policy is in a “higher for longer but maybe not” regime.
-
Risk assets are oscillating between “soft landing” and “something just broke.”
This is the worst possible macro backdrop for heavy directional leverage. There is no clear macro floor yet, only levels where the pain trade changes direction.
3.3 Sentiment is extreme, but not hopeless
Fear & Greed indices and volatility metrics show extreme fear, yet on-chain and institutional commentary still see the larger cycle as intact, with 2026–2027 often cited as the window for the “second leg” of the bull.
That combination (macro pressure + intact long-term story) is classic range-trading territory, not clean trend territory. Heavy leverage in a range is how accounts get blown up.
4. If You Must Take a Position: My Preferred Tactical Zones
Now to the part you actually care about: if someone forces you to trade this, where do you attack?
I’ll outline three concrete setups. These are not guarantees; they are structured ways to express a view with defined invalidation.
4.1 Setup A – Deep-Value Long in the $75–80k Zone
Idea: Buy the puke, not the middle of the range.
-
The $75–82k band is repeatedly identified as the key long-term support: it’s the April 2025 pullback low, an on-chain demand area, and the bottom of several technical projections.
-
If Bitcoin flushes into this zone, it will likely come with:
-
Extremely negative funding
-
One-day candles with huge lower wicks
-
Social media screaming “bull market is over”
-
How I’d want it to look:
-
Daily RSI making a higher low while price makes a marginal lower low (bullish divergence).
-
A capitulation wick below $80k that closes back above it.
Trade structure (conceptually):
-
Position type: Spot or very low leverage (1–3x).
-
Entry: Scale in across 75–80k once you see evidence of capitulation (not on the first red candle).
-
Invalidation: A clean weekly close below $70k – that’s where the “mid-cycle correction” thesis breaks for me.
-
First target: The $95–100k band; second target around $106–108k.
Risk–reward can be very attractive here, but you have to be comfortable being early while everyone is panicking.
4.2 Setup B – Reactive Short into the $98–100k Wall
Idea: Sell the rally into consensus resistance, not the crash into consensus fear.
As we’ve seen, $98–100k is the single most important resistance zone right now: prior support, moving averages, and ETF entry prices all cluster there.
What I’d want to see:
-
A sharp relief rally from the 80s into that band, ideally on declining volume.
-
4-hour or daily candles showing long upper wicks and repeated failures to close above $100k.
-
Funding flipping positive and perpetual traders turning greedy again right at the resistance.
Trade structure (conceptually):
-
Position type: Short via futures or options with moderate leverage, not 25x casino mode.
-
Entry: Scale in between $98–100k once you see clear rejection (for example, two failed daily closes above 100k).
-
Invalidation: Hard stop above $103–104k; if price lives above that, the relief rally is likely transitioning into real trend resumption.
-
Targets: First target back to the mid-80s, second target extension into $75–80k if macro remains risk-off.
This is the “fade the obvious wall” setup. Psychologically easier, but you must respect your stop – a real breakout through 100k can squeeze shorts extremely fast.
4.3 Setup C – Trend-Following Long Only After a Weekly Close Above $100k
Idea: If you want to bet on the continuation of the bull market – don’t guess the bottom, follow the breakout.
For traders who don’t care about catching the exact low and just want the next leg up:
Conditions I’d require:
-
A weekly close back above $100k.
-
A subsequent pullback that holds above roughly $95–98k (former resistance acting as support).
-
Clear signs that ETF flows and on-chain accumulation are back in risk-on mode.
Trade structure (conceptually):
-
Position type: Spot or moderate leverage.
-
Entry: On the first clean higher low above the $98–100k band.
-
Invalidation: Loss of $95k on a weekly closing basis.
-
Targets: $110–118k first, then $124–126k (prior all-time high zone).
You sacrifice bottom-picking glory for trend clarity. If the bull run is truly intact, there will still be plenty of upside above 100k.
5. My Straightforward View on the Next Few Months
To avoid being “too conservative,” here is how I personally frame the probabilities for the next 2–4 months, based on current macro, technicals, and on-chain data:
-
Base case (~50%) – Choppy range between $75k and $100k
Bitcoin spends time carving out a wide base, with brutal whipsaws that punish both FOMO longs and impatient shorts. The market digests long-term holder distribution while whales and institutions accumulate. No sustained break above 100k, no sustained break below 75k. -
Bear case (~30%) – Full flush into the low 60s
A macro shock (hard landing fears, deeper ETF outflows, or a credit event) breaks the $75k support decisively. Price spikes down toward $60–65k in a classic liquidation cascade before real structural buyers step in. That would reset the bull, but also delay any new ATH discussion well into 2026. -
Bull case (~20%) – 85k was the bottom
The current mid-80s zone holds as the cycle low. Price grinds back above $100k, flips that area into support, and spends early 2026 attacking $116–126k again. This requires macro stabilizing and ETF flows turning clearly positive sooner rather than later.
Within that framework, I treat:
-
$75–80k as the zone where I become structurally interested in new longs for the cycle.
-
$98–100k as the make-or-break pivot that separates “just a messy correction” from “time to talk seriously about fresh all-time highs again.”
Everything in between is range-trading territory only, and heavy leverage here is closer to gambling than to rational risk-taking.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice; any decisions you make with your money are entirely your own responsibility.
Comments
Post a Comment